Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.135173 0.148739 0.162609 0.177821 0.194006 0.210685 0.229144
2024-12-15 0.112235 0.132556 0.154327 0.179262 0.206902 0.236480 0.270400
2024-12-22 0.092392 0.116646 0.143781 0.176080 0.213169 0.254129 0.302477
2024-12-29 0.082490 0.110288 0.142545 0.182173 0.228973 0.281933 0.345832
2025-01-05 0.073784 0.104070 0.140411 0.186333 0.241910 0.306129 0.385052
2025-01-12 0.065988 0.097953 0.137540 0.188873 0.252380 0.327126 0.420466
2025-01-19 0.058767 0.091719 0.133792 0.189698 0.260285 0.344768 0.451795
2025-01-26 0.057407 0.092968 0.139388 0.202155 0.282544 0.379883 0.504413
2025-02-02 0.052531 0.088903 0.137638 0.204875 0.292404 0.399787 0.538685
2025-02-09 0.048721 0.085940 0.137032 0.208828 0.303669 0.421383 0.575121
2025-02-16 0.043987 0.081183 0.133595 0.208694 0.309426 0.435961 0.602862
2025-02-23 0.042995 0.081888 0.137686 0.218694 0.328468 0.467462 0.651991
2025-03-02 0.041605 0.082076 0.141302 0.228533 0.348050 0.500674 0.704707
2025-03-09 0.037730 0.078031 0.138583 0.229454 0.355742 0.518776 0.738646
2025-03-16 0.032912 0.071982 0.132517 0.225329 0.356399 0.527670 0.760896
2025-03-23 0.031343 0.071226 0.134314 0.232423 0.372434 0.556830 0.809498
2025-03-30 0.029389 0.069602 0.134636 0.237293 0.385401 0.582047 0.853229
2025-04-06 0.027194 0.067324 0.133760 0.240276 0.395687 0.603747 0.892543
2025-04-13 0.024788 0.064399 0.131644 0.241241 0.403035 0.621507 0.926787
2025-04-20 0.025254 0.066967 0.138530 0.255964 0.430165 0.666216 0.996961
2025-04-27 0.023517 0.065073 0.137934 0.259171 0.440782 0.688619 1.037779
2025-05-04 0.022173 0.063824 0.138317 0.263832 0.453499 0.713960 1.082679
2025-05-11 0.020135 0.060923 0.135708 0.263673 0.459114 0.729548 1.114616